With the end of the «Ceny Paliwa Niżej» program on July 1, Poland will return to the standard VAT rate of 23% on fuel. Reflex analysts predict an increase in gasoline and diesel prices by 40–60 groszy per liter, which will lead to a significant rise in fuel prices at all gas stations.
What Will Happen to Prices
According to the calculations of the analytical bureau, the average prices immediately after July 1 will be:
- gasoline A95: 6.50 PLN/l
- gasoline A98: 7.35 PLN/l
- diesel fuel: 6.70 PLN/l
- autogas (LPG): 3.29 PLN/l
On highways and express roads, prices will exceed 7 zlotys per liter — the traditional maximum for highway gas stations.
Two Scenarios: VAT and World Prices
The return of the tax remains the main factor, but not the only one. Reflex analysts point to a dual situation. On one hand, world oil prices have fallen to breakeven levels due to increasing supplies from the Middle East. On the other hand, the hurricane season in the Atlantic is approaching, which could create a supply shortage and raise prices. Add to this the partial cancellation of the government program even before July 1, and the picture becomes clear: a price increase is almost inevitable, even if gas stations reduce their own markup.
How to Mitigate the Impact
Summer promotions at major chain gas stations may offset the increase by 30–36 groszy per liter. However, discounts come with conditions: mobile app, activated coupons, or purchases of non-fuel products. Typically, promotions are limited to weekends, the number of refuels, or the total volume of fuel purchased.
